Blog
Investment insights, portfolio strategy, and the thinking behind how we build portfolios.
What Yield Curves Tell Us (And What They Don't)
The inverted yield curve has predicted every modern US recession. It has also generated false positives. The honest version of what the curve actually signals.
Read more →What Is a Recession and Why It Matters for Long-Term Investors
The definition, the history, and the empirical record of what recessions actually do to equity portfolios.
Read more →Inflation and Stock Returns: The Empirical Record
Stocks are sometimes called the best inflation hedge. The data is more nuanced than the slogan. What 75 years of inflation regimes actually did to equity returns.
Read more →Interest Rates and Stock Valuations: How the Fed Actually Moves Markets
The mechanism by which Fed policy reaches stock prices, why it works through valuations not earnings, and what to actually pay attention to in rate cycles.
Read more →Market Regimes: How Long-Term Cycles Shape Returns
Different decades behave differently. The 1980s-90s ran one regime, the 2000s ran another, the 2010s a third. Understanding which regime you're in changes how you allocate.
Read more →Recency Bias: Why Last Year's Winner Becomes This Year's Disaster
We treat the most recent twelve months as if they were the whole story. The math says otherwise, and the pattern of chasing recent performance is one of the most reliable destroyers of retail returns.
Read more →Loss Aversion: Why Investors Sell Winners Too Soon and Hold Losers Too Long
The asymmetric pain of losses produces predictable, expensive investing mistakes. The math, the research, and the procedural defenses that work.
Read more →Stop Losses: Why They Sound Disciplined and Often Hurt
The case against the most popular form of retail risk management. When stop losses help, when they harm, and what to use instead.
Read more →Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Why Retirement Plans Quietly Fail
Two retirees with identical average returns can land in completely different places. The hidden risk of the wrong returns at the wrong time.
Read more →What Beta Actually Measures (And What It Doesn't)
Beta is on every fund fact sheet. Most explanations are wrong or misleading. The plain-language version of what it tells you, what it hides, and when to ignore it.
Read more →Volatility vs Risk: A Distinction That Changes Everything
Volatility is what you feel each day. Risk is the permanent loss of capital. Conflating the two is the most expensive mistake in retail investing.
Read more →Position Sizing: How to Decide How Much to Put Into a Single Stock
The decision that separates disciplined portfolios from concentrated bets that fail. Conviction, liquidity, and the math that keeps you in the game.
Read more →Qualified vs Ordinary Dividends: The Difference That Adds Up
Two dividends, same dollar amount, different tax bill. The difference is enough to change your after-tax return materially over time.
Read more →Asset Location: Where to Hold Each Position for Maximum After-Tax Return
Where you hold a position often matters more than what you hold. The asset location decision compounds across decades and most investors never run the math.
Read more →Tax-Loss Harvesting: How a Loss Becomes Real Money
The mechanics of converting paper losses into tax savings without changing your underlying portfolio thesis. Wash-sale rules and how to stay clear of them.
Read more →IRA vs Roth vs Taxable: A Decision Framework, Not a Dogma
The right answer depends on your current tax bracket, your expected retirement bracket, and how soon you need access. A clear decision tree, not the usual hand-waving.
Read more →How Portfolio Turnover Quietly Eats After-Tax Returns
Two strategies with identical pre-tax returns can land miles apart after taxes if their turnover differs by a factor of two. The math, plus what to look for on a fund fact sheet.
Read more →Index Fund vs Active Management: The Honest Answer
Index funds beat most active managers. But "most" isn't "all," and the math has nuance. Here's the honest breakdown.
Read more →What Is a Benchmark? (And Why the Wrong One Will Mislead You)
A benchmark is the yardstick you measure a portfolio against. Picking the wrong one makes any strategy look better or worse than it really is.
Read more →How to Read an Annual Report (Without a Finance Degree)
A 200-page 10-K is intimidating. Here's the 30 minutes of it that actually matter, and what to skip.
Read more →How Hedge Funds Decide What to Buy (and Sell)
There's a romantic version of how hedge funds operate.
Read more →What Is a Model Portfolio? A Plain-English Guide
If you've spent any time researching how to invest, you've probably run into the term "model portfolio." The phrase gets used everywhere. By advisors.
Read more →Sharpe Ratio vs. Sortino Ratio: Which One Actually Matters?
If you've spent any time looking at portfolio statistics, you've encountered the Sharpe ratio. You've probably also encountered the Sortino ratio.
Read more →Max Drawdown Explained: The Number Investors Ignore Until It's Too Late
There's a number on every portfolio fact sheet that almost nobody reads carefully.
Read more →How to Read a Portfolio Performance Chart Without Getting Fooled
Almost every investing platform shows you the same chart. A line going up and to the right, with the portfolio in one color and the market in another.
Read more →Quarterly Rebalancing: Why It Beats Set-and-Forget
There's a popular school of investing that says you should pick a portfolio, hold it forever, and never touch it. Set and forget.
Read more →Total Return vs. Price Return: The 1.5% That Adds Up to a Fortune
There's a number that almost everyone ignores when they think about stock market returns. It's not particularly complicated. It's not new.
Read more →Why $10,000 Is the Right Way to Show Long-Term Returns
If you've ever looked at a portfolio's performance chart, you've probably seen one that says "Growth of $10,000." A line goes up over decades, ending at...
Read more →Hedge Fund Fees Are 2 and 20. Ours Are Different.
The standard hedge fund fee structure is two and twenty.
Read more →Concentration vs. Diversification: When 20 Stocks Is Plenty
There's a well-traveled piece of investment advice: never put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. Spread risk across many holdings. Buy index funds.
Read more →What Is a 13F Filing? (And Why Smart Investors Read Them)
A 13F filing is a quarterly SEC disclosure where investment managers running over $100M list their long stock holdings. Here's what they tell you, what they hide, and how to use them.
Read more →How to Read a Stock Chart Without Getting Fooled
A stock chart looks simple but hides traps. Here's what to actually look at, what to ignore, and the four mistakes beginners make.
Read more →Portfolio Diversification: How Much Is Enough?
"Don't put all your eggs in one basket" is half the answer. Here's how diversification actually works, and why 20 stocks can outperform 500.
Read more →The Best Stock Pickers of All Time (And What They Got Right)
Buffett, Druckenmiller, Klarman, and a dozen others. Who actually has the long-term track record, and what they share in common.
Read more →How Hedge Funds Actually Make Money (It's Not What You Think)
Hedge funds aren't magic. Here's how they generate returns, where their edge actually comes from, and why most of it can't be copied.
Read more →What Is Rebalancing? (And Why It Quietly Beats the Market)
Rebalancing forces you to sell high and buy low automatically. Here's what it is, when to do it, and the math that makes it work.
Read more →How to Evaluate a Financial Advisor (Without Getting Sold)
Most "advisors" are salespeople. Here's how to tell the difference, what questions to ask, and what to walk away from.
Read more →How to Invest Like the World's Best Stock Pickers (Without Being One)
The world's best stock pickers already do the work of filtering thousands of opportunities down to a few. Their research is public. Almost nobody uses it correctly.
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